Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
