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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement is handed the prize. However, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

But the latest race is distinctly different. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers ascending collectively. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

This is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still